Supply Chain Dive reported that Vietnam's waterborne volume to the US rose about 16% in the twelve months to April 2026, while China's fell around 18% — even though China remains the largest origin. Carriers have responded, for example by adding Cai Mep calls to transpacific services (JOC).
What the shift means in practice
| Area | Effect |
|---|---|
| Ocean capacity | More direct services from Vietnam, but tighter space in peaks |
| Inputs | Many factories still import materials from China — increasing origin and transshipment scrutiny |
| Inland logistics | Pressure on roads and ports around Ho Chi Minh City and Hai Phong |
| Compliance | Buyers demand traceability and origin documents |
| Regional links | More cross-border flows with Cambodia (inputs in, finished goods out) |
How to benefit
- Document origin carefully — substantial transformation.
- Plan capacity early — securing space.
- Use regional networks, e.g. Cambodian SEZs and DDP from Cambodia.